- 到8月31日，伊朗是否已不再控制哈爾克島？<1¢
- 到9月30日，伊朗是否已不再控制哈爾格島？3¢
- 到12月31日，哈爾克島不再由伊朗控制？8¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Kharg Island remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing 2026 Iran conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz blockade. US forces conducted multiple strikes on military targets there in March and later months, destroying air defenses, radar, mine storage, and other sites while deliberately sparing oil export infrastructure that handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude shipments. As of mid-August 2026, the western terminal reactivated for loading after a 25-day shutdown caused by the blockade, though eastern and LPG facilities stayed inactive with tankers rerouting where possible. President Trump has repeatedly threatened occupation or further strikes to reopen maritime traffic and pressure Tehran, but no ground seizure or transfer of primary governmental or military authority has occurred. Iran continues to exercise control, with officials warning of retaliation and maintaining operational presence despite disruptions. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments around the blockade and any escalation in US operations remain the main variables that could shift control before near-term resolution deadlines.