- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero 會被判處監禁嗎？3¢3%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero remains in the investigative phase of the Plus Ultra case at Spain’s Audiencia Nacional, where he faces allegations of influence peddling, money laundering, and potential malversación tied to jewelry seized from his offices. The judge has sought extensions for further inquiries, including testimony from his daughters scheduled for late November 2026, reflecting the case’s complexity and volume of pending diligencias. No trial date exists, and Spanish procedural rules require formal charging, hearings, possible appeals, and sentencing before any prison term could result. Trader consensus at 96.7% on “No” aligns with the extended timeline typical for high-profile political cases, historical outcomes for similar investigations, and structural protections afforded former officeholders. Developments that could still shift probabilities include new evidence triggering accelerated proceedings, international cooperation outcomes, or rulings on pending defense challenges.
規則
如果 José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero 因任何指控而被判處任何刑期的監禁，且判刑時間不晚於 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET，此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場將持續開放至 2026年12月31日，或直到指定人士被判處監禁為止，無論最初的判決是否包含監禁。任何判決均符合條件，不受後續上訴或刑期變更影響。 民事訴訟、監管行動、行政申訴、未提出指控的調查、內部僱傭措施，或未提出刑事指控的公開指控，均不符合條件，即使這些事件受到廣泛報導，或在口語中被稱為「指控」也一樣。 如果針對指定人士的調查或由此產生的任何刑事案件，在任何時候正式終結，且已不可能判處監禁，包括因未提出指控、指控遭撤銷、被判無罪，或法院未作出且將不會作出任何判決的其他情況，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場的主要結算依據將是相關政府及執法機關的官方資訊；但亦可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。