- Jon Ossoff 或 Raphael Warnock 會在 2026 年離開參議院嗎？3¢3%
Trader consensus on this market reflects Ossoff’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in Georgia’s November 3, 2026, Senate contest against Republican Representative Mike Collins. Recent polling averages show Ossoff ahead by roughly 6–9 points, supported by dominant fundraising—$33 million raised in the third quarter alone with $26 million cash on hand—and favorable race ratings from forecasters such as Cook (Likely Democratic) and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Ossoff has repeatedly pledged to serve a full six-year term if reelected and ruled out a 2028 presidential bid. Warnock, whose seat is not contested until 2028, shows no indications of resignation or departure. While late developments such as health events, scandals, or sharp polling reversals could theoretically shift outcomes, current primary-source campaign data and electoral indicators underpin the market’s high probability that both senators remain in office through 2026.
規則
若 Jon Ossoff 或 Raphael Warnock 任一人於 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前正式不再擔任美國參議員，此市場將判定為 Yes。否則，此市場將判定為「否。」 Jon Ossoff 或 Raphael Warnock 必須依照適用於該職位的法律、規則或程序，正式不再擔任指定職位。宣布將於未來離職不符合條件。離職方式不影響結算；辭職、免職、開除或其他方式均符合條件。 臨時休假、有期限的停職、無限期停職、行政休假，或指定人員在指定職位上的職責發生其他臨時變動，均不符合條件。 此市場的判定來源將為 Jon Ossoff、Raphael Warnock、Jon Ossoff 或 Raphael Warnock 的辦公室，以及美國參議院所發布的聲明。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。