- 傑 Jerome·鮑威爾會在 2027 年前入獄嗎？1¢1%
The overwhelming 97.8% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the complete absence of any criminal indictments, regulatory enforcement actions, or credible investigations targeting the Federal Reserve Chair. As a Senate-confirmed public official overseeing monetary policy, Powell faces no documented legal exposure that would meet the high evidentiary bar for incarceration, consistent with historical precedent for Fed leadership. Traders price this outcome as near-certain given the institutional safeguards and lack of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as politically motivated charges in a highly polarized environment or unforeseen personal misconduct emerging in the final months of his term, though neither has materialized in official filings or credible reporting.
規則
如果 Jerome Powell 在市場建立至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 期間，曾在美國聯邦、州或地方的任何監獄或看守所服刑，則此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場的主要結算依據為美國政府的官方資訊，但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。