- J.D.范斯會在12月31日前不再擔任副總統嗎？5¢5%
JD Vance continues to serve as vice president without any confirmed moves toward resignation, removal, or replacement as of early November 2026. The most recent development shaping trader views is the Republican Party’s midterm losses, which handed Democrats control of both congressional chambers and prompted Vance to publicly attribute the results to the ongoing Iran conflict while distancing from aspects of the administration’s record. This has fueled speculation about 2028 succession dynamics, with attention shifting toward figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though President Trump has not signaled any intent to alter the vice presidency. Historically, vice presidents depart early only in rare cases involving health, scandal, or voluntary resignation tied to higher office bids—none of which apply here. Key upcoming factors include the January 2027 start of the new Congress, which could alter legislative leverage, and any late-breaking foreign policy or domestic developments within the current term. Trader consensus currently prices low near-term probability of Vance leaving the role before standard term-end scenarios.
規則
如果 JD·萬斯在市場建立至指定日期（ET）之間的任何一段時間內不再擔任美國副總統，此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 若在此市場結束日期之前宣布 Vance 辭職或遭免職，此市場將立即結算為「是」，不論所宣布的辭職或免職何時生效。 如果指定人士遭到拘留、實際上被撤離指定職位，或在本市場的時間範圍內以其他方式被永久阻止履行指定職位的職責，則符合結算為「是」的條件。 此市場的結算來源將是 JD·萬斯及美國政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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