- 日本國會會在 2026 年解散嗎？9¢9%
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition secured a fresh mandate in the February 2026 Lower House election following the January dissolution, leaving the current four-year term with more than three years remaining as of mid-October. With a working majority intact and no no-confidence motion pending, the ruling bloc faces little institutional pressure to seek another early vote before year-end. Recent cabinet turbulence, including the agriculture minister’s resignation, has trimmed approval ratings to the low-to-mid 50s but not triggered the kind of acute crisis that historically prompts dissolution. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against a 2026 dissolution, viewing it as inconsistent with standard Japanese parliamentary practice unless unforeseen events such as coalition fracture or a sharp economic downturn materialize in the final weeks of the year.
規則
如果日本現任眾議院於 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前解散，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場的主要判定依據為日本政府的官方資訊，但也會參考可信報導的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。