- 伊朗會在 2027 年前擁有核武器嗎？3¢3%
Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA reporting no visible reconstruction efforts at those sites through late October 2026. Inspectors have lacked access since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing diplomatic efforts and an IAEA referral to the UN Security Council. These developments, combined with Iran's suspension of safeguards cooperation and internal debates over NPT obligations, underpin trader consensus that weaponization timelines remain extended well beyond 2026. Remaining risks include undetected activity at undeclared locations or accelerated post-conflict decisions to enrich existing stocks further.
規則
如果國際核能機構、伊朗政府本身或可信的全球新聞來源發布可信報導，正式確認伊朗在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前擁有核武器，則此市場將結算為「是」。 否則，此市場將以「否」結算。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。