- 共和黨會贏得 IN-08 的眾議院席位嗎？93¢93%
- 民主黨會贏得眾議院中屬於 IN-08 的席位嗎？6¢6%
Incumbent Republican Mark Messmer holds a commanding lead in the Indiana 8th congressional district race due to the district's strong Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit presidential margins and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the GOP. Messmer, who assumed office in 2025 after winning the open seat in 2024, benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, unopposed primary status, and recent legislative activity on defense and workforce issues. Challenger Mary Allen secured the Democratic nomination but trails significantly in resources and faces structural barriers in a district with limited competitive history for Democrats. Trader consensus at 92% for Messmer aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal or national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before November 3.
規則
本市場將根據在 2026 年期中選舉中贏得美國眾議院 IN-08 國會選區席次的候選人所屬政黨進行結算。期中選舉將於 2026年11月3日 舉行。 候選人的政黨歸屬，將以該候選人在本市場的結算資訊來源明確判定 2026 年所有眾議院選舉結果時，在選票上列明或以其他方式可確認的政黨隸屬關係為準。若候選人的選票上未列明其屬於民主黨或共和黨，則將依據本市場判定來源對所有眾議院選舉作出最終判定時，該候選人最近一次表示有意加入其黨團會議的政黨，將其視為該黨的成員。 本市場將根據可信報導所形成共識指出的選舉結果結算。如有任何歧義，本市場將僅依據美國政府公布的官方結果判定，具體而言，以聯邦選舉委員會（https://www.fec.gov/）公布的結果為準。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。