- Imran Khan 會在 2026年12月31日 前獲釋嗎？8¢8%
Pakistan's jailed former prime minister Imran Khan continues to face multiple convictions and over 180 pending cases, with appeals in key matters such as the Al-Qadir Trust case adjourned amid disputes over legal access. Recent PTI protests, including the October 2026 Long March demanding his release and medical care, yielded only limited concessions like possible hospital visits after government talks stalled over counterterrorism demands and provincial control. The federal imposition of emergency rule in PTI stronghold Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in mid-October further weakened the party's leverage, while court orders for private medical examinations face government challenges. Analysts note no near-term path to full release before the year-end deadline, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability for "No."
規則
如果巴基斯坦前總理 Imran Khan 在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前獲釋出獄，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，本市場將判定為「否」。 就本市場而言，只有在 Imran Khan 連續至少 24 小時未被實際關押於任何巴基斯坦拘留設施，才會被視為已出獄；這些設施包括任何監獄、候審拘留設施或其他正式羈押場所。因接受醫療而臨時獲釋、以須返回羈押為條件的保釋，或在一宗案件中獲釋但仍因另一宗案件遭羈押，均不符合條件。在獲釋後被軟禁、受到旅行限制或須遵守其他非羈押條件，不會妨礙此市場判定為「是」。 本市場的判定來源將為巴基斯坦政府或 Imran Khan 的官方資訊；但亦可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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