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- 統一俄羅斯黨會在下一屆俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得310到324個席位嗎？18¢
- 統一俄羅斯黨會在下一屆俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得340至354個席位嗎？23¢
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- 統一俄羅斯黨會在下屆俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得325至339個席位嗎？38¢
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Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
United Russia is expected to retain a strong supermajority in the September 18–20, 2026 State Duma election, with trader consensus centering on 325–339 seats. This positioning stems from the party's entrenched advantages under Russia's mixed electoral system—half the 450 seats via single-member districts and half via proportional lists with a 5% threshold—combined with administrative control, high name recognition, and the absence of viable non-systemic opposition. State-affiliated polls from VCIOM and FOM typically show the party at 34–40% support, while independent surveys register lower figures; recent regional contests in 2025 reinforced its dominance, boosting its average seat share in legislatures. The August 22, 2026 party congress under Vladimir Putin reinforced a pro-war platform, placing figures such as Dmitry Medvedev at the top of the federal list alongside military correspondents and veterans to mobilize support. Economic pressures and wartime conditions have weighed on ratings, yet the controlled environment, veteran candidacies, and marginalization of challengers limit downside risks, keeping probabilities for outcomes near or modestly above the 2021 result of 324 seats highest while capping more extreme gains or losses.