- 特朗普會驅逐不到 20 萬人嗎？2¢2%
- 特朗普會驅逐 200-300k 人嗎？4¢4%
- 特朗普會驅逐300–40萬人嗎？8¢8%
- 特朗普會驅逐人數：400–50 萬人嗎？43¢43%
- 特朗普會驅逐 500–60 萬人嗎？4¢4%
- 特朗普會驅逐人數：600–70 萬嗎？2¢2%
- 川普會驅逐 700 至 80 萬人嗎？1¢1%
- 特朗普會驅逐這個數量的人嗎：800-900k？1¢1%
- 特朗普會驅逐來自 900k-1m 的人嗎？3¢3%
- 特朗普會驅逐超過 100 萬人嗎？3¢3%
Recent Migration Policy Institute analysis shows U.S. authorities completed roughly 980,000 deportations and returns from January 2025 through July 2026, placing the annualized pace for fiscal year 2026 at approximately 660,000—above prior years yet below the administration’s one-million target. Traders appear to weigh this shortfall alongside low border encounters, rising but still limited interior enforcement, expanded voluntary departures, and ongoing legal and logistical constraints when pricing the 400-500k range as the leading outcome for calendar 2026. White House statements citing higher cumulative removals have not shifted the market, as participants focus on verifiable removal counts versus broader enforcement actions. Interior arrests have increased in recent months, yet overall volumes remain tempered by court backlogs and resource allocation. No major policy shifts have occurred in the past week to alter this positioning.
規則
在 2024 財政年度期間，ICE 遣返了 271,484 名非公民（參見：https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf）。 本市場將根據美國移民及海關執法局（ICE）在 2026 財政年度遣返的非公民人數進行結算。 結算依據將是 ICE 2026 財政年度年度報告。如果 ICE 2026 財政年度年度報告未能在 2027年2月28日 下午11:59 ET 前發布，將使用另一個可信的結算來源。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。