- 10月14日威靈頓的最高氣溫會是17°C嗎？>99¢
- 10月14日惠靈頓的最高氣溫會是19°C嗎？<1¢
- 10月14日，威靈頓的最高氣溫會達到21°C或以上嗎？<1¢
Trader consensus at 100% for a 17°C high in Wellington on October 14 reflects direct alignment with real-time observations from local weather stations. Official data show temperatures peaking at 17°C during the afternoon under a moderate northerly flow, with overcast skies, light rain, and dew points near 15°C limiting further warming. This matches climatological norms for mid-October in the region and consistent model guidance from agencies tracking surface conditions. The market-implied odds capture the narrow range of verified maxima rather than forecasts. Only an unexpected late revision in the official daily maximum from the primary reporting station could shift the outcome, though current measurements make such adjustments improbable.
規則
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.