- 12月31日 前希臘和土耳其會發生軍事衝突嗎？5¢5%
Recent tensions center on competing maritime claims in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean, intensified by overlapping NAVTEX notices for the Eunomia 2026 multinational exercise and surveys for the Greece-Cyprus Great Sea Interconnector cable project. Turkey has issued counter-notices asserting jurisdiction over areas east of Crete and near Kasos/Karpathos, citing its continental shelf and Libya memorandum, while Greece proceeds without seeking Ankara’s consent and reports frequent Turkish aircraft and drone violations, including armed F-16 interceptions and simulated engagements near Kastellorizo in early October. Turkish state media have warned of potential naval encounters involving Greek and French vessels. Parallel diplomatic channels, including confidence-building talks and UN-side discussions on maritime delimitation, continue alongside U.S. statements emphasizing NATO constraints against direct conflict. These developments, concentrated in the past two weeks, shape trader assessments of near-term engagement risks.
規則
如果在 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 前，希臘與土耳其軍方之間發生軍事交戰，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 「軍事交戰」指任何涉及使用武力的事件，例如飛彈攻擊、砲擊、交火，或希臘與土耳其軍方之間其他形式的直接軍事交戰。非暴力行動，例如警告射擊，或飛彈發射後落入領海或穿越領空，不符合判定為「是」的條件。蓄意以船隻撞擊另一艘船，並造成重大損害（例如船體出現破洞），或由一艘船擊沉另一艘軍艦，將計入判定為「是」；但輕微損害（刮痕、凹痕）不計。 遭攔截的飛彈或無人機攻擊不符合判定條件，無論其是否落入敵方領土或造成損害。同樣地，擊中敵方領土的地對空飛彈攻擊不符合判定為「是」的條件（但向敵方軍機發射的地對空飛彈則符合條件）。 本市場的結算依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。