- Graham Platner 會在 2026年12月31日 前被起訴嗎？3¢3%
Graham Platner faced public allegations of sexual assault from a former girlfriend dating to late 2021, which surfaced in early July 2026 and prompted his withdrawal from Maine’s Democratic Senate nomination. Authorities in Hancock County and the Maine State Police stated no formal complaint had been filed and no investigation was active, with officials noting victims often decline to pursue charges. The market assessed the likelihood of any federal or state indictment or charging announcement by the August 31, 2026 deadline at roughly 3 percent, reflecting the absence of procedural triggers, the brief remaining window, and the typical pace of such matters. Later campaign finance filings through October showed continued spending but no references to legal proceedings. Traders priced in the low probability based on the lack of new complaints or enforcement actions in the weeks after the allegations emerged.
規則
如果美國任何聯邦或州級司法管轄區在市場建立後至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 期間，正式起訴 Graham Platner 或以其他方式宣布對其提出刑事起訴，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 就本市場而言，哥倫比亞特區以及任何州的任何郡、市或其他次級行政區均納入「州」的定義。 本市場的主要判定依據為美國政府來源的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導的廣泛共識。
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