- 聯邦資本利得稅會在 2026 年前調降嗎？7¢7%
Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted legislation cutting federal long-term capital gains rates, which remain at 0/15/20 percent brackets for 2026. The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made prior individual rate provisions permanent without altering capital gains taxation. Targeted proposals to double the primary residence exclusion, index gains for inflation, or create new exemptions have advanced only to the discussion or committee stage, facing reconciliation constraints, competing midterm priorities, and a compressed legislative calendar before year-end. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for no change by December 31, 2026, reflects these procedural and timing barriers. A narrow lame-duck package expanding the home-sale exclusion or introducing indexing could still shift the outcome if Congress prioritizes housing supply measures after the November elections.
規則
如果在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前，制定成法的法案透過改變長期資本利得的課稅或計算方式，降低個人就長期資本利得所欠的聯邦稅，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 符合條件的變更不必適用於所有納稅人或所有長期資本利得。如果法案直接降低或免除個人一般而言，或某個明確界定的納稅人或利得類別，就長期資本利得所欠的聯邦稅，即足以使本市場判定為「是」。這包括降低稅率、豁免或排除、變更適用門檻、變更成本基礎或利得的計算方式，或採用其他法定機制。符合條件的變更可以在本市場的期限之外生效。 臨時性的減稅或稅務優惠也將計入。僅延後繳稅時間的變更，或未特別改變長期資本利得課稅或計算方式、僅降低納稅人整體聯邦稅負的變更，均不予計入。 此市場判定的主要依據為美國政府的官方資訊，但也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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