- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間發表200-219條推文嗎？100¢100%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間發佈180至199則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 從2026年9月11日到9月18日，Elon Musk會發表160至179則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 從2026年9月11日至9月18日，Elon Musk 會發佈220到239則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間發佈140至159則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間發佈240至259條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間發佈280至299條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間發佈260至279條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 從2026年9月11日到9月18日，Elon Musk會發表120到139則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 埃隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間發表320至339則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間發佈300到319則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克在2026年9月11日至9月18日期間會發佈100至119條推文嗎？0¢0%
Traders have priced the 200-219 bracket at near-certainty because Elon Musk’s posting pace through mid-September 2026 has tracked squarely inside that window, with live trackers showing roughly 197 posts by September 18 and recent full-week totals landing in the low-to-mid 200s. September historically averages lower volume than peak 2025 periods, reflecting a steadier cadence of company updates on Starlink, Tesla, and SpaceX alongside occasional replies rather than sustained high-output streaks. This pattern aligns with the market’s strong consensus around the frontrunner outcome. An upset into higher brackets would require a sudden surge tied to major breaking news or a multi-day engagement spike, while a sharp drop below 200 would need an unusually quiet final stretch with minimal new developments.
規則
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 11 12:00 PM ET to September 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.