- Elon 牛市組合2¢2%
Traders assign over 95% probability to “No” on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because all three legs—Elon Musk reaching trillionaire status, the birth of another child in 2026, and nine or more successful SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—must occur before year-end. As of mid-October, Tesla’s valuation remains far short of the required surge, no confirmed pregnancy announcement has surfaced, and Starship’s flight-test cadence has produced only a handful of orbital attempts with mixed results. The compressed timeline leaves little room for the rapid progress needed in regulatory approvals, manufacturing scale-up, or launch-site operations. While an unexpected Tesla rally, private family news, or accelerated Starship test program could theoretically close the gap, each outcome faces independent structural and timing hurdles that keep the joint probability low.
規則
如果在 1月1日 至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 期間符合以下所有條件，此市場將以「是」結算： 伊隆·馬斯克成為兆美元富豪 - Elon 再添一名子女 - 9 次或以上 SpaceX Starship 發射升空進入太空 否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 本市場將保持開放，直到確認上述條件中至少有一項未達成，或直到上述所有條件均在指定期限內達成。 本市場的完整規則請見此處： https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
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