- 哪裡的參議院選戰會更激烈：Alaska 還是 Texas？69¢69%
Texas holds a 61.5% implied probability of producing the narrower Senate margin. Both races rank among the tightest 2026 contests, with recent polling averages showing single-digit or sub-4-point spreads in each. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola has held narrow leads or near-ties over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan across October surveys (e.g., 48-47, 50-48, 51-49), though ranked-choice voting transfers could widen the final certified margin. In Texas, the open-seat matchup between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has produced similarly tight results (Talarico +1 to +4 in multiple October polls), driven by heavy outside spending, shifting Latino and suburban voting patterns, and the state’s large electorate that can compress percentage margins. Traders appear to view Texas’s combination of polling volatility, demographic fluidity, and absence of RCV mechanics as more likely to deliver the smallest victory margin on Election Day.
規則
2026 年期中選舉預定於 2026年11月3日 舉行。 若 Alaska 按照既定時程舉行的美國參議院選舉中，未經四捨五入的勝選差距小於 Texas 的參議院選舉勝選差距，則此市場的結果為「Alaska」。 若 Texas 按照既定時程舉行的美國參議院選舉中，未經四捨五入的勝選差距小於 Alaska 的參議院選舉勝選差距，則此市場的結果為「Texas」。 如果兩州的勝選差距相同，此市場將以 50-50 判定。 就本市場而言，「勝選差距」定義為得票數排名第一與第二的候選人所獲有效票百分比之間的絕對差值。每位候選人所獲有效票的百分比，將以有效票數排名前兩位的候選人各自獲得的有效票總數，除以該次選舉所有有效票總數來計算。 對於包含決選、排序選擇投票或其他多輪投票的選舉，相關的勝選差距以決定勝選者的那一輪為準。 如果截至 2027年3月31日 仍無法確定相關的勝選差距，就本市場而言，該州的勝選差距將視為 0%。 本市場的結算來源將彙整所有負責認證全州選舉的相關州選舉機關資料；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。