- Christine Lagarde 會在 2026 年卸任 ECB 總裁嗎？30¢
Christine Lagarde’s term as ECB president runs until October 2027, and recent statements plus institutional signals support trader expectations that she will remain in office through 2026. In September 2026 she explicitly confirmed she would leave in 2027 without specifying an earlier exit, while ruling out a return to French national politics. October 2026 policy remarks on French fiscal pressures, energy-driven inflation, and ECB tools for market stability showed her continuing in the role with no resignation signals. EU finance ministers are advancing succession planning focused on other executive board vacancies, with Germany signaling it will not challenge the presidency next year, consistent with a 2027 transition. These factors align with the 78.5% implied probability that Lagarde stays through the end of 2026.
規則
若 Christine Lagarde 在市場建立至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之間的任何一段時間內不再擔任歐洲中央銀行總裁，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 若在本市場結束日期前宣布 Lagarde 辭職或遭免職，本市場將立即判定為「是」，不論該項宣布的辭職或免職何時生效。 本市場的判定依據將為 Christine Lagarde 與歐洲中央銀行的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。