- 2027年前中台軍事衝突？8¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign the “No” outcome a 92.2% implied probability because U.S. intelligence assessments and observable cross-strait dynamics indicate Beijing currently favors unification without force and views a large-scale amphibious operation as high-risk and difficult to execute successfully before 2027. Recent developments reinforce this view. In March 2026, the U.S. intelligence community stated that China does not plan an invasion in 2027 and continues prioritizing non-military coercion. July–August 2026 saw routine PLA live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan’s largest-ever Han Kuang exercises testing blockade resilience, reservist mobilization, and supply-chain relocation—standard gray-zone and defensive posturing rather than escalatory signals. Diplomatic contacts, including the April 2026 KMT-CCP meeting and subsequent integration measures with outlying islands, alongside ongoing U.S.-China dialogue on trade and stability, further support the market’s assessment that a military clash remains unlikely within the resolution window absent a major unforeseen trigger.