- 2028 年之前中國會發生政變未遂嗎？12¢12%
- 2027 年前中國會發生政變未遂嗎？2¢2%
Recent large-scale purges within the People’s Liberation Army, including the removal of multiple Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on corruption and disloyalty grounds, have left numerous seats vacant at the Fifth Plenum. These actions, announced in September and October 2026, reflect intensified internal discipline efforts ahead of the 2027 party congress. No coordinated military or factional effort to seize power has been confirmed by credible reporting in the past month. Trader consensus on low odds for a coup attempt before year-end aligns with the absence of verified execution of such plans, though scheduled leadership meetings and any sudden public absences could still introduce volatility.
規則
如果在市場建立至2027年12月31日 下午11:59 ET期間的任何時候，有關中國發生政變未遂的消息被廣泛報導，此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 政變企圖指軍方、安全部隊或其他國家行為者（或其派系）協調且蓄意推翻中國政府或其領導層，或非法奪取其控制權。非國家武裝力量的革命行動、零星抗議或一般性動盪，單獨而言均不符合條件。 中國政府聲稱政變企圖已遭挫敗，例如透過逮捕或阻止已計畫的行動，只有在可信的獨立消息來源廣泛報導該事件，並明確將其描述為政變企圖時，才會計入判定為「是」的結果。若政變尚未有人嘗試執行，則遭挫敗的陰謀或逮捕行動均不符合條件。 判定依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。