- 中國會在 12月31日 前發射彈道飛彈嗎？9¢9%
China’s July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific remains the most recent major public launch, with Beijing describing it as routine annual training and issuing only short-notice notifications that drew criticism from the United States, Japan, Australia, and others. Subsequent activity through mid-October has centered on DF-26 readiness drills, coastal live-fire exercises, and routine PLA aircraft and naval patrols around Taiwan, without confirmed additional ballistic missile firings into international waters. These patterns of gray-zone operations and capability signaling, rather than new long-range tests, have shaped trader views that another launch before year-end is unlikely amid stable cross-strait dynamics and no evident escalation triggers in the final months of 2026.
規則
如果中國在市場建立後至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之間發射彈道飛彈，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 只有發射彈道飛彈才符合判定為「是」的條件，包括洲際彈道飛彈（ICBM）、潛射彈道飛彈（SLBM）及彈道反艦飛彈。 發射其他系統，例如巡弋飛彈、地對空飛彈（SAM）、多管火箭發射系統／火箭炮、魚雷等，均不符合判定為「是」的條件。 市場判定將以可靠來源公開提供的資訊為依據，例如官方政府聲明、聯合國等國際監測機構的報告，或知名國際媒體的報導。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。