- 加拿大會在 12月31日 前驅逐美國大使嗎？8¢8%
Canada-US diplomatic frictions have intensified around trade tariffs, ambassadorial statements, and election-related accusations, yet these have not produced the conditions for formal expulsion by year-end. US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra remains in post amid ongoing disputes, including his October 2026 podcast remarks warning Canadian officials against perceived interference in US midterms and criticizing provincial ads and ministerial comments on tariffs. A parliamentary petition exceeding 200,000 signatures earlier in the year urged declaring him persona non grata over comments on Canadian politics and “51st state” rhetoric, but it is non-binding and the Carney government has shown no inclination to invoke the Vienna Convention mechanism. Bilateral trade negotiations continue despite suspensions, with both sides prioritizing managed tensions over rupture ahead of US midterms. Traders price expulsion as improbable because such a step would represent an unprecedented escalation against a close ally, absent a triggering crisis or official policy shift.
規則
如果加拿大在市場建立後至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之間驅逐美國駐加拿大大使，則此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 就本市場而言，「驅逐」是指加拿大採取正式行動，要求美國駐加拿大大使離開加拿大，包括宣布其為不受歡迎人物（persona non grata）。撤銷大使的簽證或拒絕其入境加拿大，單獨而言均不足以構成驅逐。 只要宣布符合條件的驅逐，即足以將市場判定為「是」，無論大使是否實際離開該國。 本市場的主要判定來源為加拿大政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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