- Scott Wiener 會贏得 CA-11 的眾議院席位嗎？98¢98%
- Connie Chan 會贏得 CA-11 的眾議院席位嗎？<1¢<1%
Scott Wiener holds an 80.7% implied probability in the CA-11 general election market after securing a clear lead on November 3, 2026, with roughly 55.5% of votes counted to Connie Chan’s 44.5%. Chan conceded on November 4, citing no viable path from remaining ballots despite Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement. Wiener’s stronger primary performance, roughly double the fundraising, support from the California Democratic Party, and voter preference for his housing and development positions contributed to the margin in a solidly Democratic San Francisco district. Minor candidates and “other” options remain at lower trader-assessed levels consistent with the two-candidate general election structure. Full certification and any late ballot shifts represent the primary remaining variables.
規則
本市場將根據在 2026 年期中選舉中贏得美國眾議院 CA-11 國會選區席位的人士來結算。期中選舉將於 2026年11月3日 舉行。 本市場將根據可信報導所形成共識指出的選舉結果結算。如有任何歧義，本市場將僅依據美國政府公布的官方結果判定，具體而言，以聯邦選舉委員會（https://www.fec.gov/）公布的結果為準。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。