- 2027 年前，巴西 STF 是否會有任何一位大法官遭彈劾免職？4¢4%
Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices face a high procedural threshold for removal, requiring a Senate supermajority of 54 votes out of 81 on crimes of responsibility, a bar never cleared in the court’s history. Recent congressional elections strengthened right-leaning blocs aligned with former President Bolsonaro’s allies to roughly 49 seats, still short of the threshold, while Senate President Davi Alcolumbre—expected to retain his post—has previously blocked more than 100 pending requests. Lula’s reelection and ongoing judicial reform debates, including rules limiting filings and raising early-stage quorums, further constrain momentum before the new Senate convenes in February 2027. Trader consensus on “no” removal by year-end reflects these structural and timing barriers. A rapid change in Senate leadership or an unforeseen scandal accelerating proceedings could still shift odds within the narrow window.
規則
若巴西聯邦最高法院（STF）的任何一名法官因彈劾或責任犯罪審判而遭永久免職，且此事發生於 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 之前，則此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 因任期限制、自願辭職，或任何其他非因彈劾或責任犯罪審判而離開法院的法官，均不予計入。 若彈劾、責任犯罪審判、停職或其他程序措施未導致巴西聯邦最高法院的法官遭永久免職，則這些措施本身不足以判定此市場。 此市場判定的主要依據為巴西政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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