- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?86¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
SPD has maintained a consistent lead over the Greens in pre-election polling for the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, supporting the market's strong implied probability favoring SPD for more votes. Recent surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Sept. 1–3), INSA (late August–early September), and Infratest dimap (late August) placed SPD at 7–8.5% and the Greens at 5–6%, with the gap holding steady amid broader shifts driven by AfD strength and CDU weakness. Both smaller parties hover near or above the 5% threshold, but SPD's edge has not narrowed significantly in the final weeks. Traders appear to view these established polling patterns—rather than any late campaign surge—as the dominant indicator for the direct vote-share comparison. No major verified developments in the past 30 days have altered this relative positioning.