- Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
The election held on September 6, 2026, produced AfD vote shares of roughly 44–48 percent according to ARD, ZDF, and Infratest dimap extrapolations, translating to approximately 39 seats in the 83-seat Landtag—short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority. Other parties captured the balance, with the CDU at around 16–18 percent (16–17 seats), the Left near 9 percent (8–9 seats), the SPD and Greens each near 8–9 percent (8 seats apiece), and the BSW clearing the 5 percent threshold for 4–5 seats. High turnout near 76–80 percent and the five-percent hurdle’s effect on smaller parties prevented further consolidation behind the AfD. Final counts could shift marginally, yet the consistent multi-party seat distribution across projections leaves little realistic path to 42 seats. Trader consensus therefore prices an AfD majority as highly improbable.