- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?75¢
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?84¢
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?20¢
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?25¢
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?37¢
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?43¢
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?51¢
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?57¢
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?69¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.54 percent amid elevated inflation, with the latest PCE readings around 3.7–4.1 percent driven by energy price surges from Middle East supply disruptions and tariff effects. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent through mid-2026, including a July decision with three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting concerns over sticky core inflation above the 2 percent target. Strong labor market conditions, solid GDP growth, and heavy Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits have reinforced a higher term premium. Traders are watching the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases for any shift in the rate path, which could influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end 2026 or remain anchored near recent highs.