- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?100¢100%
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?0¢0%
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?0¢0%
The Bank of Russia’s September decision to hold its key rate at 14% reflected mounting inflationary pressures from fuel supply disruptions caused by Ukrainian strikes on refineries, alongside elevated underlying price growth and persistent inflation expectations. Policymakers noted moderate economic expansion in the third quarter but cited these factors as outweighing the case for further easing after a series of prior cuts. Trader consensus priced in no change because official statements and incoming data aligned with a pause, following reduced political pressure for lower borrowing costs. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharper changes in inflation readings, renewed fiscal spending surges, or significant geopolitical developments altering energy supply and ruble dynamics before full resolution.
Quy tắc
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.