- Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?21¢
Recent polling averages show Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek essentially tied in the open Iowa Senate race to succeed retiring Republican Joni Ernst, with surveys from early to mid-October placing each candidate between 45 and 48 percent. The contest remains competitive due to Iowa’s Republican lean offset by voter concerns over cost of living, tariffs, and U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict, which featured prominently in the candidates’ final debate on October 14. Turek has drawn support from independents and women on economic issues, while Hinson benefits from party infrastructure and Trump endorsement in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Trader consensus around a narrow “no flip” edge reflects these fundamentals plus historical base rates for open Senate seats. Late October polling shifts, turnout among key voting blocs, or any new economic or foreign-policy developments before November 3 could still alter the balance.
Правила
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Josh Turek (D)'s hourly odds value is higher than Ashley Hinson (R)'s hourly odds value in the "Iowa Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Josh Turek (D) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Josh Turek (D) or Ashley Hinson (R) in the "Iowa Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Josh Turek (D) and Ashley Hinson (R) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Josh Turek (D) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Josh Turek (D) and Ashley Hinson (R) in the "Iowa Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-iowa-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.