- Will SPD win fewer than 18 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will SPD win 18-21 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?3¢
- Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?62¢
- Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?28¢
- Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will SPD win 34 or more seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polling ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election shows the SPD at 28–32 percent, up several points from earlier in the year but still trailing the AfD. This projects the SPD, which won 34 seats in 2021, toward roughly 23–25 seats in the 71-seat parliament. Trader pricing for the 22–25 seat range at 62 percent aligns with these averages, while the 26–29 range at 28.5 percent reflects the recent narrowing of the SPD–AfD gap in surveys from Infratest dimap and Forsa. Smaller parties such as the Left, CDU, and Greens remain near or below thresholds that could indirectly influence seat totals through overhang and leveling effects. No major late-campaign shocks have altered the steady trajectory in published surveys.