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Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent opinion polls for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke narrowly leading or tied with the CDU in a fragmented field, with support near 20 percent and other parties trailing. This positioning drives the market's elevated probability for Linke finishing with the most seats. The CDU has seen modest gains after a leadership adjustment but remains closely contested, while AfD support has fluctuated without sustaining an edge. With the vote less than a month away, the tight race among multiple parties and absence of any clear majority path sustain uncertainty reflected in current trader consensus.