- Liberal-National bir sonraki Victoria Yasama Konseyi seçiminde en çok sandalyeyi kazanacak mı?86¢%86
- One Nation bir sonraki Victoria Yasama Konseyi seçiminde en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı?7¢%7
- İşçi Partisi, bir sonraki Viktorya Yasama Konseyi seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı?4¢%4
- Yeşiller, bir sonraki Victoria Yasama Konseyi seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı?<1¢<%1
%1%85,5Liberal-National$8,1 B hacim
%3%6,7One Nation$2,9 B hacim
%4,1İşçi Partisi$3 B hacim
%0,5Yeşiller$1,3 B hacim
Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a clear lead in Victorian primary and two-party-preferred voting for the 28 November election, with primary support around 30–33% compared to Labor’s 18–22% and One Nation’s 21–23%. This positioning underpins the 86% implied probability for Liberal–National in the Legislative Council market, where proportional representation across eight regions rewards stronger statewide performance. Labor’s primary vote slump since the July leadership transition and the absence of group voting tickets have limited its upper-house prospects, while minor parties remain competitive only for individual seats. With 18 days until polling, traders are pricing in the Coalition’s consistent advantage reflected in the latest Resolve and DemosAU surveys.
Kurallar
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Council (Victoria's upper house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all Legislative Council seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, including members elected from joint Liberal–National groups, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Each Legislative Council seat will be attributed to the party under whose name the elected candidate, or the elected candidate's group, appeared on the ballot paper. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the total number of Legislative Council seats won across all eight electoral regions. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of formal first-preference votes received in the Legislative Council election across all eight electoral regions, counting both above-the-line votes for the party's group and below-the-line first-preference votes for its candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, including the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).