- Marine Le Pen 2027 Fransız cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?45¢%45
- David Lisnard 2027 Fransız cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?15¢%15
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?13¢%13
- Édouard Philippe 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?11¢%11
- Christine Lagarde 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerini kazanacak mı?7¢%7
- Raphaël Glucksmann 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?3¢%3
- Dominique de Villepin 2027 Fransız cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerini kazanacak mı?2¢%2
- Jordan Bardella 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?2¢%2
- François Hollande 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?2¢%2
- Bruno Retailleau 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?<1¢<%1
- Éric Zemmour 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerini kazanacak mı?<1¢<%1
- Gabriel Attal 2027 Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerini kazanacak mı?<1¢<%1
%2%44,5Marine Le Pen$5,1 Mn hacim
%1%15,1David Lisnard$6,7 Mn hacim
%12,5Jean-Luc Mélenchon$3,2 Mn hacim
%1%10,5Édouard Philippe$3 Mn hacim
%6,9Christine Lagarde$2,6 Mn hacim
%3Raphaël Glucksmann$3,4 Mn hacim
%2,5Dominique de Villepin$3,4 Mn hacim
%2,3Jordan Bardella$3,5 Mn hacim
%2,2François Hollande$3 Mn hacim
%0,8Bruno Retailleau$3,7 Mn hacim
%0,7Éric Zemmour$3,4 Mn hacim
%0,6Gabriel Attal$3,7 Mn hacim
Marine Le Pen leads the market at 44.3% due to her sustained first-round polling average near 35% and consistent second-round advantages across tested matchups, reflecting Rassemblement National strength six months before the April 2027 vote. David Lisnard’s 15.3% share aligns with his recent polling gains to 6-9% in October-November surveys and online momentum that has positioned him ahead of Bruno Retailleau in some right-wing scenarios. Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12.5% tracks his stable second-place poll standing near 17%, while Édouard Philippe’s 10.5% reflects his recent decline amid centrist fragmentation involving Gabriel Attal and others. These trader-implied probabilities capture the effects of ongoing candidate positioning and polling trends that favor polarization into a likely Le Pen-led runoff.
Kurallar
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).