- ABD, İran petrolü yaptırım muafiyetini 30 Kasım'a kadar yeniden yayımlar mı?12¢%12
- ABD, İran petrol yaptırımlarını 31 Aralık'a kadar yeniden muaf tutar mı?31¢%31
- %1%1230 Kasım$8,8 B hacim
- %1%3131 Aralık$114,3 B hacim
Ongoing Qatar-mediated talks represent the main driver of trader sentiment on reissuance of U.S. Iran oil sanctions relief, with Iran’s November 2 proposal for rapid waivers tied to Strait of Hormuz access facing U.S. rejection over verification demands. The June 2026 General License X, which briefly authorized exports through August before revocation and blockade reimposition, saw Iranian loadings collapse to near zero by September, supporting Brent crude near $72 per barrel. Fresh October sanctions targeting the shadow fleet under Operation Economic Outcast have further tightened pressure, while market-implied odds reflect low near-term probability of new licenses absent compliance breakthroughs before year-end deadlines.
Kurallar
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.