- Ukrayna, 31 Aralık 2026'ya kadar kendi toprakları üzerindeki Rus egemenliğini tanıyor mu?7¢%7
- Ukrayna, 30 Haziran 2027'ye kadar Rusya'nın toprakları üzerindeki egemenliğini tanıyor mu?17¢%17
- Ukrayna, 31 Aralık 2027'ye kadar Rusya'nın kendi toprakları üzerindeki egemenliğini tanıyor mu?18¢%18
- %5%7,231 Aralık 2026$106,6 B hacim
- %4%16,530 Haziran 2027$851 hacim
- %3%1831 Aralık 2027$339,8 hacim
US-mediated trilateral talks scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi represent the most immediate catalyst, with negotiators set to address security guarantees, de-escalation, and territorial disputes amid Russia's insistence on formal recognition of control over Crimea and the four annexed regions. Russian officials, including Dmitry Peskov and Sergey Lavrov, have reiterated that any durable settlement requires acknowledgment of "realities on the ground" and Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining areas in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled openness to freezing current lines but continues to reject ceding sovereignty or neutral status without credible Western assurances, while President Trump has described an emerging deal that would leave Ukraine with a modified territorial outline. Russia currently holds roughly 19-20 percent of Ukrainian territory, and these negotiations will test whether battlefield positions translate into legal recognition within the market's resolution window.
Kurallar
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement. An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia. The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.