İspanya Genel Seçimleri: Biscay Kazananı
SiyasetSeçimlerİspanyaKüresel SeçimlerDünyaUluslararası Seçim Sahne Malzemeleriİspanya Seçimleri
Başlangıç tarihi
2026-10-21
Bitiş tarihi
2026-11-30
24 sa hacim
$4K
Toplam hacim
$21K
  • EH Bildu, 2026 İspanya genel seçimlerinde Biscay'da en fazla sandalye kazanacak mı?50¢%50
  • PSOE, 2026 İspanya genel seçimlerinde Biscay'da en fazla sandalye kazanacak mı?31¢%31
  • PNV, 2026 İspanya genel seçimlerinde Biscay'da en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı?28¢%28
  • Geniş Cephe (FA), 2026 İspanya genel seçimlerinde Biscay'da en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı?<1¢<%1
  • Vox, 2026 İspanya genel seçimlerinde Biscay'da en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı?<1¢<%1
  • Podemos, 2026 İspanya genel seçimlerinde Biscay'da en fazla sandalyeyi kazanacak mı?<1¢<%1
  • PP, 2026 İspanya genel seçimlerinde Biscay'da en fazla sandalye kazanan parti olacak mı?<1¢<%1

Trader consensus in this Basque constituency highlights EH Bildu's sustained regional strength, driven by consistent gains in local and European Parliament voting patterns that favor its platform on autonomy and social policy. PNV retains a traditional base in Biscay but faces erosion from shifting voter alignments, while national parties including PSOE register lower support amid broader Spanish electoral fragmentation. Upcoming general election timelines, potential coalition negotiations in Madrid, and any late shifts in turnout among nationalist voters remain key variables that could alter probabilities before resolution. Current implied probabilities position EH Bildu ahead, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of these dynamics.

Kurallar

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Biscay as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Biscay, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Biscay, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

İspanya Genel Seçimleri: Biscay Kazananı

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