- Camilo Santana bir sonraki Brezilya Genelkurmay Başkanı olacak mı?56¢%56
- Fernando Haddad bir sonraki Brezilya Genelkurmay Başkanı olacak mı?34¢%34
- Gleisi Hoffmann bir sonraki Brezilya Genelkurmay Başkanı olacak mı?9¢%9
- Geraldo Alckmin bir sonraki Brezilya Genelkurmay Başkanı olacak mı?4¢%4
- Rui Costa, bir sonraki Brezilya Genel Sekreteri olacak mı?3¢%3
- Jaques Wagner bir sonraki Brezilya Genelkurmay Başkanı olacak mı?3¢%3
- Miriam Belchior bir sonraki Brezilya Genelkurmay Başkanı olacak mı?1¢%1
%4%55,5Camilo Santana$1,6 B hacim
%8%34Fernando Haddad$4,7 B hacim
%2%9Gleisi Hoffmann$665,7 hacim
%3%3,9Geraldo Alckmin$2,2 B hacim
%1%3,2Rui Costa$455,9 hacim
%1%3,1Jaques Wagner$371 hacim
%1%1,1Miriam Belchior$653,2 hacim
Lula’s reelection in October 2026 has intensified competition for the Casa Civil, the presidency’s key coordination post in the term beginning January 5, 2027, with traders assigning roughly even odds to leading PT figures amid fragmented positioning. Camilo Santana’s recent Senate leadership and campaign coordination role have elevated his profile, while Fernando Haddad’s standing reflects ongoing party loyalty despite his São Paulo defeat; secondary names such as Geraldo Alckmin, Gleisi Hoffmann, Rui Costa, and Jaques Wagner remain in play as Lula balances factions and accommodates defeated allies. The market stays tight because no single contender has secured decisive backing, and cabinet decisions remain pending after Lula’s mid-November travels. Announcements expected by late December or early 2027, alongside congressional negotiations and any shifts in PT alliances, could consolidate support and widen gaps before the February 28 resolution deadline.
Kurallar
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Chief of Staff of the Presidency (Ministro-Chefe da Casa Civil) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Chief of Staff at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Chief of Staff will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Chief of Staff” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Chief of Staff are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Chief of Staff assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.