Recent monthly CPI readings for 2026 have averaged near 0.9% year-on-year through September, with September at 0.9% and August at 0.8%, reflecting moderate non-food and transport gains offset by ongoing food deflation. Persistent weakness in domestic consumption, the multi-year property downturn, and subdued household confidence continue to limit broad price pressures despite targeted fiscal support, local government bond measures, and mortgage subsidies. Export strength and selective energy-driven producer prices have provided some lift, but core inflation has remained contained around 1%. With ten months of data already pointing to a subdued annual pace, trader consensus centers on the 0.6–1.0% range as the most probable full-year outcome, with limited scope for sharp acceleration in the final months absent stronger demand-side shifts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/