- Japonya Merkez Bankası, Aralık 2026 toplantısından sonra faiz oranlarını 50+ baz puan indirir mi?<1¢<%1
- Japonya Merkez Bankası, Aralık 2026 toplantısından sonra faiz oranlarını 25 baz puan düşürür mü?<1¢<%1
- Aralık 2026 toplantısından sonra Japonya Merkez Bankası'nın faiz oranlarında değişiklik olmayacak mı?31¢%31
- Japonya Merkez Bankası, Aralık 2026 toplantısından sonra faiz oranlarını 25 baz puan artırır mı?65¢%65
- Japonya Merkez Bankası, Aralık 2026 toplantısından sonra faiz oranlarını 50+ baz puan artırır mı?<1¢<%1
- %1%0,250+ baz puan indirim$3,4 B hacim
- %0,425 baz puan düşüş$4,4 B hacim
- %21%31Değişiklik yok$10,4 B hacim
- %25%64,525 baz puan artış$19,4 B hacim
- %0,750+ baz puan artış$5 B hacim
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hawkish post-meeting remarks after the late-October hold at 1.25% have driven the 89.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike. Core CPI reached 2.1% in September, exceeding the 2% target, while the bank revised upward its fiscal 2027 inflation forecast and emphasized upside price risks from energy costs and yen weakness. September policy minutes released in early November further reinforced the shift toward monitoring inflation overshoots at each meeting, with most economists now expecting a quarterly pace of tightening. The October “hawkish pause” to assess prior hikes and financial conditions has left little room for alternatives, as no-change odds sit at just 10.5% and larger moves remain below 2%.
Kurallar
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.