- Kanada Merkez Bankası, Aralık faiz oranı açıklamasında gecelik faiz oranı hedefini 50 baz puan veya daha fazla artıracak mı?<1¢<%1
- Kanada Merkez Bankası, Aralık faiz oranı duyurusunda gecelik faiz oranı hedefini 25 baz puan artıracak mı?30¢%30
- Kanada Merkez Bankası, Aralık faiz oranı duyurusunda gecelik borçlanma faizi hedefinde hiçbir değişiklik yapmayacak mı?68¢%68
- Kanada Merkez Bankası, Aralık faiz oranı açıklamasında gecelik faiz oranı hedefini 25 baz puan düşürecek mi?<1¢<%1
- Kanada Merkez Bankası Aralık faiz oranı açıklamasında gecelik faiz hedefini 50 baz puan veya daha fazla düşürecek mi?<1¢<%1
- %6%3025 baz puan artış$80,3 B hacim
- %5%68Değişiklik Yok$83,6 B hacim
- %0,225 baz puanlık düşüş$28,2 B hacim
The Bank of Canada’s October 28 hike of 25 basis points to 2.5%—its first since 2023—shifted trader focus toward the December 9 decision amid persistent energy-driven inflation. Headline CPI reached 3.1% in September and is projected to hit 3.5% by year-end, with the October Monetary Policy Report revising 2027 inflation upward to 3.1% due to elevated oil prices and refinery margins. Core measures remain near 2%, however, and Governor Macklem emphasized data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decisions given trade uncertainties. This backdrop supports the 62.5% implied probability of no change, while the 37% chance of another 25-basis-point increase reflects risks that cost pressures broaden. Incoming labor and inflation releases before December will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Kurallar
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.