- Brezilya Merkez Bankası Aralık toplantısında Selic oranı hedefini 50 veya daha fazla baz puan artıracak mı?1¢%1
- Brezilya Merkez Bankası, Aralık toplantısında Selic faiz oranı hedefini 25 baz puan artıracak mı?2¢%2
- Brezilya Merkez Bankası Aralık toplantısında Selic faiz oranı hedefinde hiçbir değişiklik yapmayacak mı?86¢%86
- Brezilya Merkez Bankası Aralık toplantısında Selic faiz hedefini 25 baz puan düşürecek mi?5¢%5
- Brezilya Merkez Bankası, Aralık toplantısında Selic faiz oranı hedefini 50'den fazla baz puan düşürecek mi?3¢%3
- %1,250+ baz puan artış$5,8 B hacim
- %1,925 baz puan artış$7,2 B hacim
- %4%85,5Değişiklik Yok$21,9 B hacim
- %2%5,425 baz puan düşüş$19,6 B hacim
- %3%2,950+ baz puan düşüş$9,1 B hacim
The Banco Central do Brasil’s November 4 decision to hold the Selic rate at 13.75% after five consecutive 25-basis-point cuts has anchored trader expectations for the December meeting. Post-election volatility following President Lula’s October 25 reelection drove a sharp rise in inflation expectations and fiscal uncertainty, with the latest Focus survey lifting the year-end 2026 Selic median to 13.50–13.75%. September IPCA inflation reached 4.58% year-over-year, and the mid-October preview edged to 4.62%, while Q2 GDP growth slowed to 0.5%. These developments have produced an 80% market-implied probability of no change in December, reflecting the Copom’s emphasis on restoring credibility before resuming easing. The next data releases and Copom communications remain the key near-term swing factors.
Kurallar
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.