- Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?25¢
Recent polling has shown Democratic challenger Mary Peltola maintaining a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s U.S. Senate contest, with margins of 2 to 7 points in surveys conducted in early to mid-October. Peltola’s stronger fundraising—raising roughly $17 million in recent months compared with Sullivan’s lower cash position—has supported heavier advertising, while Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and primary results (Peltola at 49.5 percent, Sullivan at 41.4 percent) have shaped expectations. National party resources and recent campaign visits by President Trump for Sullivan have not yet shifted the polling trend or forecaster ratings, which classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic. Early voting begins October 19 ahead of the November 3 election, leaving limited time for late developments to alter the current trader consensus favoring Peltola.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R)'s hourly odds value is higher than Mary Peltola (D)'s hourly odds value in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Dan Sullivan (R) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) or Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-alaska-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.