- Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
- Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?18¢
- Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?23¢
- Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?4¢
- Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?4¢
- Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?37¢
- Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?8¢
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
United Russia enters the September 18–20, 2026 State Duma election as the dominant incumbent with roughly 310–324 seats from the prior cycle, backed by extensive administrative resources, control of single-member districts, and alignment with systemic opposition parties in a mixed electoral system. Recent party congress proceedings, including Vladimir Putin’s August address and approval of a federal list featuring long-standing loyalists alongside select war veterans, have reinforced the party’s pro-government positioning ahead of voting. State-affiliated polling and 2025 regional results indicate sustained support levels that, combined with limited genuine opposition access, point traders toward outcomes preserving a constitutional majority near current holdings. The clustered probabilities on 325–354 seats reflect expectations of modest stability or incremental gains rather than sharp shifts, amid ongoing economic pressures and wartime conditions that have not materially eroded the party’s structural advantages.