- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?10¢10 %
Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled as of early November 2026, with both sides far apart on core demands including sanctions relief, naval blockades, and limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian officials have stated that U.S. responses to Tehran’s seven conditions are inadequate, requiring full compliance before any final agreement or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent limited U.S. strikes and post-midterm threats of escalation have further reduced momentum toward a comprehensive deal. Russia and China recently vetoed a related UN Security Council measure on Hormuz security, signaling potential opposition to endorsing any U.S.-Iran framework. With the June 2026 memorandum’s 60-day timeline long expired and no breakthrough in sight, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a binding UNSC resolution by year-end.
Regler
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.