- Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?70¢70 %
- Will Greens win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?22¢22 %
- Will Labor win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?6¢6 %
- Will Liberal–National win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Libertarian win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Legalise Cannabis win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Shooters, Fishers, Farmers win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?<1¢<1 %
5 %69,5 %One NationVolym 14,9 tn $
1 %22,1 %GreensVolym 3,8 tn $
1 %5,7 %LaborVolym 7,8 tn $
0,8 %Liberal–NationalVolym 2,3 tn $
0,3 %LibertarianVolym 1,9 tn $
0,2 %Legalise CannabisVolym 1,7 tn $
0,2 %Shooters, Fishers, FarmersVolym 914,2 $
Recent Victorian state election polling shows a fragmented primary vote with the Coalition leading on around 31%, followed closely by One Nation near 22% and Labor at 22-23%, while the Greens sit at 13-15% and remaining minor parties and independents share the balance. One Nation's rapid rise since early 2026 has positioned it as a potential third-place contender in the Legislative Assembly primary vote, yet volatility across recent surveys from RedBridge, Resolve, DemosAU and Roy Morgan keeps outcomes uncertain. Labor's long-term decline and the dispersed support among smaller parties further complicate separation for third place. With nominations closed and early voting approaching on 18 November ahead of the 28 November election, final preference flows and turnout in outer suburban and regional seats could determine which party edges ahead.
Regler
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).