- Spain General Election: PSOE gains seats?24¢24 %
Recent polling averages project the PSOE winning around 112–114 seats in the November 29, 2026 snap election, down from its 121 seats in 2023. Most surveys place the party’s vote share near 27%, with the conservative PP leading on roughly 30–31% and Vox on 18–19%. Seat models show the PP–Vox bloc reaching or exceeding the 176-seat majority threshold in the vast majority of simulations, while PSOE’s traditional investiture partners on the left remain fragmented and unlikely to deliver enough support for gains. Key drivers include sustained voter movement toward the right amid housing affordability pressures, cost-of-living concerns, and regional issues in strongholds such as Andalucía. The left’s inability to unify behind a single list—exemplified by the Broad Front’s separate effort from other progressive groups—has further diluted PSOE’s potential ceiling. Sánchez’s decision to call the early vote after parliamentary defeats on housing decrees has not reversed these trends in private polling, though the state-run CIS remains an outlier favoring the Socialists. With the official campaign underway and consistent private-survey evidence pointing to a net seat loss for PSOE, traders assign a high probability to the “No” outcome.
Regler
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) wins more than 121 seats, the number of seats it won in the 2023 Spanish general election, in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).