- Russia coup attempt by December 31, 2027?16¢16 %
- Russia coup attempt in 2026?1¢1 %
- 1 %15,5 %December 31, 2027Volym 2,2 tn $
- 1 %1,4 %December 31, 2026Volym 156,3 tn $
Putin maintains tight control through expanded FSB authority, balanced security structures, and recent government adjustments that limit independent power centers among elites. Ongoing economic and military pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including refinery strikes, have fueled speculation about internal discontent, yet analysts note the absence of coordinated military or security faction moves since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a coup attempt through 2026, reflecting historical precedent of regime resilience and structural barriers like surveillance of potential rivals. Any shift would likely require major battlefield reversals or elite fractures not yet evident in verifiable reporting.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.