- Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?3¢3 %
- Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?11¢11 %
- 1 %3,1 %November 30Volym 32,5 tn $
- 1 %10,5 %December 31Volym 248,5 tn $
Houthi forces seized Perim Island (Mayun) in mid-September 2026 during a rapid coastal offensive that also took Mocha and nearby positions, completing control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait’s key channels after Yemeni government troops withdrew. This development shifted the island from a peripheral asset to a fortified vantage point for monitoring and potentially disrupting Red Sea shipping lanes. Subsequent counteroffensives by Saudi-backed Southern Giants Brigades and airstrikes in October produced localized clashes and claims of partial gains, yet no verified large-scale recapture has occurred amid reported factional divisions and limited external air or naval support. Trader pricing reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities of reversal by year-end given the island’s defensive geography, Houthi reinforcements, and the broader Iran-aligned posture in Yemen’s western theater. Scheduled military operations and any escalation in naval patrols remain the primary near-term variables.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.