- Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?28¢28 %
- Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?16¢16 %
- Will Hili Tropper be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?13¢13 %
- Will Tally Gotliv be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?5¢5 %
- Will Ofir Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?4¢4 %
- Will Gilad Kariv be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?4¢4 %
- Will Oded Forer be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?3¢3 %
- Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?3¢3 %
- Will Yariv Levin be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?3¢3 %
- Will Efrat Rayten be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?3¢3 %
- Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?2¢2 %
- Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?1¢1 %
- 17 %28,5 %No Next Minister by Feb 28Volym 90,9 tn $
15,8 %Orit Farkash-HacohenVolym 2,8 tn $
2 %13 %Hili TropperVolym 4,7 tn $
5 %Tally GotlivVolym 5,7 tn $
4 %Ofir KatzVolym 6,3 tn $
4 %Gilad KarivVolym 2,7 tn $
3,3 %Oded ForerVolym 3,2 tn $
3,2 %Gideon Sa’arVolym 6,5 tn $
2,8 %Yariv LevinVolym 3,1 tn $
2,7 %Efrat RaytenVolym 358,8 $
2 %Ayelet ShakedVolym 2,7 tn $
1,4 %Amir OhanaVolym 898,9 $
The inconclusive October 27, 2026, Knesset election and subsequent coalition talks have kept the Justice Ministry race wide open, with multiple candidates clustered near even implied probabilities. Gadi Eisenkot’s emerging edge in forming a government, bolstered by Arab-led parties’ endorsements on November 5, shifts leverage toward centrist or National Unity figures such as Orit Farkash-Hacohen and Hili Tropper, yet Netanyahu-aligned Likud and Religious Zionism factions continue pressing claims for the portfolio. The 40.5% chance of no appointment by late February reflects typical delays in Israeli coalition bargaining over judicial appointments and the Judicial Selection Committee. Traders’ even pricing across names captures uncertainty over final seat allocations and potential early elections if talks collapse.
Regler
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.